making "predictions" at the beginning of the year, dropping them in a time capsule (aka: the archives) and dredging them up at the year ends to see just how far off I was. 2011's Predictions are on the way Monday morning. Here's some of what I predicted for 2010, and what actually happened.
My Prediction - "Barack Obama will finally wake up to the reality that the GOP is just a bunch of obstructionists... He'll finally find ways of controlling the message, paint these guys as the jacka$$es they are, and help the Dems hold their majority in the Senate, and a narrow lead in the House next Fall."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Obama STILL didn't get the message about messaging until it was way too late and the TeaBagger rebellion took over the House again. I was right about the Senate, but that's mostly due to the TeaBagger rebellion too if you think about it.
Net Result - 75% Accurate
My Prediction - "The Healthcare bill will finally pass in March with the Public Option included."
See, What Had Happened Was... - The bill did pass in March, but sans a public option, which was never even an option at all.
Net Result - 75% Accurate
My Prediction - "Cap and Trade legislation will die a swift, definitive, and necessary death."
See, What Had Happened Was... - DOA.
Net Result - 110% Accurate
My Prediction - "Unemployment will unexpectedly stabilize under 10% for much of the year, but it won't inch down toward 8% at any point. This will continue to be a thorn in the President's side, even as other sectors of the economy rebound as expected."
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Net Result - 150% Accurate
My Prediction - "A high profile Democrat facing re-election will have a notable sex scandal erupt, and this will end his bid."
See, What Had Happened Was... - To my knowledge this didn't actually happen. The Democrats lost the old fashioned way... at the polls.
Net Result - 0% Accurate
My Prediction - "The GOP/TeaBagger friction will cost the party a couple of seats as its infighting for ideological purity leads to wasted resources, split votes, and an unexpected Democratic win."
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Net Result - 3,500% Accurate
My Prediction - "The Kentucky Wildcats will win the NCAA Basketball Championship in Indianapolis. John Wall will leave school early, as expected, and become the #1 overall draft pick of the New York Knicks."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Mostly wrong. The Cats lost early in the tourney, Wall did go pro, but he didn't become a Knick. You know where he ended up if you read this blog. This is one of the rare times when I'm very happy I was dead wrong.
Net Result - 33% Accurate
My Prediction - "The Minnesota Vikings will win the Super Bowl, and Brett Favre will sign a two-year contract extension."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Mostly wrong (again). The Vikes lost the NFC title game in OT, Favre came back for one final go round, and the whole thing just totally went to sh*t. On the bright side, two AverageBros named Leslie Frasier and Joe Webb came up as a result. So, again, I'm happy I was wrong. And happy trails Brett. You and your sext messages won't be missed. Enjoy retirement.
Net Result - 25% Accurate
My Prediction - "The San Antonio Spurs will shock the world (and the Lakers) and capture the NBA title."
See, What Had Happened Was... - The Spurs shocked nobody but their season ticket holders, losing to the Dallas Mavs in the first round. However, this year, they're retooled have the NBA's best record. I day late and a season early.
Net Result - Dead Wrong.
My Prediction - "Tiger Woods will return to golf by the Summer, win a major tournament, and announce his intention to marry one of his longtime jumpoffs."
See, What Had Happened Was... - El Tigre didn't even wait that long to come back, but his return was more Jordan #23 Wizards than Jordan #45 Bulls, and that's saying white a bit. Still, Tiger made about $100M last year, despite playing like Evan Turner and losing most of his endorsements. If that's an off year, imagine what this guy's gonna be like when he's back? Take that, Phil Mickelson.
Net Result - 95.
My Prediction - "Although rap music sales will continue to plummet, a new star will be born with Nicki Minaj becomes the first female rapper in years to actually move units."
See, What Had Happened Was... - Like her or not (I currently find her annoying and a waste of decent in-the-booth talent), she moved units, becoming the first femmecee in years to go gold. Yeah, Pink Friday was about as interesting as an NPR pledge drive, but numbers don't lie.
Net Result - 3,000% Accurate
Question: Am I pretty good at this predictions stuff or what?