Thursday, April 24, 2008

Hillary's Fuzzy Math

"We don't believe you, you need more people."[1]

I know I said I'd lay off the politricks for a minute, but sometimes it's good to remind myself exactly why laying off politricks is a good idea. When I see stuff so brazenly outrageous as Hillary Clinton's latest ploy for Superdelegate attention, I can't help but say somethin'.

Witness this nonsense.
If numbers don't lie, the Democratic presidential race is proving they can confuse: Both campaigns claim they are ahead in the popular vote.

The day after her big win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday that she now has more votes than anybody who has ever run for president in a Democratic primary.

"I'm very proud that as of today, I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anybody else, and I am proud of that," Clinton said at a rally in Indianapolis. "It's a very close race, but if you count, as I count, the 2.3 million people who voted in Michigan and Florida, then we are going to build on that."

Clinton is including Michigan and Florida, primaries she won after all the candidates agreed to boycott the states for holding votes too early for party rules. Obama had his name pulled off the ballot in Michigan, so he doesn't get a single vote from that state.

Including Michigan and Florida, Clinton has 15.1 million to Obama's 15 million - a lead of about one-half of a percentage point for Clinton. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama has 14.4 million to Clinton's 13.9 million - a lead of about 1.7 percent for Obama. Neither total includes the primary vote total from Washington state, since it doesn't count toward the nomination and the party awards delegates based on its caucus.

The other problem with counting the popular vote is that states that held caucuses aren't included at all - Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine. Those four states don't have a popular vote total to include - instead they count the number of delegates elected for each candidate to determine who wins. And those states are relatively small, Obama won every one except Nevada.

Nor does the total reflect the outcome of the Texas caucus, which Obama won. The caucus counts the delegates elected instead of voter turnout. But Texas also conducts a primary, which Clinton won, and the popular vote count does include those votes.
For the last friggin' time: Barring an unforeseen circumstance Hillary cannot mathematically finish the primary schedule ahead of Obama in any statistical category. Period. That's been the case since Super Tuesday, yet the MSM still seems intent on dragging this thing out. If you watch CNN[2], you'd think it was still February, not damn near the summer.

Vapid as I am, it finally occurred to me just why this logic is being ignored yesterday. Quite simply because this is pure gold for talk radio, print media, and cable news talking monkeys. The minute they deem this race over, they basically have to shut down operations until late Summer when the Dems and GOP have their conventions. Really, what other news is there to report if both candidates have long since been chosen?

Silly me. What the hell was I thinking?

As entertaining as the above media can be at times, I think it's best for my sanity (and yours) to start tuning some of this stuff out. It's pretty clear what the Grand Hu$tle here is.

The better question is what the hell is the Democratic Party just standing idly by for? Why hasn't Howard Dean and Co. pulled out a calculator and done some very basic math? Clinton can't mathematically pull this out. Unless Barry's illegitimate baby in East St. Louis magically pops up, that's not likely to change over the course of the final 9 contests. So why don't they just put an end to this costly, and unnecessary slandering of Obama, and start working on bringing the party back together. This whole thing makes John McCain look like The Pope by comparison.

Enough already.

Question: Is the MSM just milking this thing for all it's worth or is it just me? Does Hillary have any chance at convincing the SuperDelegates to side with her?

Clinton, Obama Both Claim Lead In Votes [AP]

The Delegate Math Gives Obama a Mortal Lock On the Nomination [JedReport]

[1] Yeah, I know I run that Jay-Z quote into the ground, but it's so necessary. And appropriate.

[2] They had me going with that whole "best political team" slogan, but I know a bunch of hustlers when I see em'.

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