Thursday, March 6, 2008

Don't Count Obama Out Yet

[Light Barry, Dark Barry. Here we go again.]

Ok, so the vaunted politricks hiatus didn't last long. But admit it, you expected Obama to grab 3 of 4 Tuesday yourself, right? I had already written a pretty cool "H.S.D. Clintons" post last week, and threw it in the hopper, assured I'd be running it Wednesday. Needless to say, things didn't play out quite like that. I'm on vaca, so I didn't bother watching any election returns (really) until Wednesday morning, at which point I proceeded to cry in my cereal. Not necessarily because I expected Obama to wrap it up Tuesday night, but mainly because as I've stated before, I'm just tired of having to pay attention to this crap.

Alas, I'm wise enough to realize that things probably won't end anytime soon. This campaign is probably going right up to Denver as many have predicted, and few can dispute that now.

That said, I've already heard lots of folks sounding the Death Knell for Barry, and my generally pessimistic side had to thinking the same until I looked at the numbers and realized it's far from over.

While Clinton ended Obama's 11 game winning streak the other night by winning the primaries in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island (seriously Providence, WTF? Ya'll let me down.) Barry did win Vermont (big deal, I know), and will prolly take the Texas Caucus once that whole debacle is sorted out. So, you could say 2 out of 5 ain't that bad, and reality is, Clinton only gained about 12 points on Obama when you factor in all the Superdelagates. Consider this the obligatory run that every trailing team makes at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Some say these wins signal a change in momentum that Obama won't be able to overcome. I say that's BS, remember many folks said the same after New Hampshire. And then there's the minor issue of he remaining states and territories voting before the Democratic National Convention. Peep game...

Wyoming - March 8th - 12 Delegates - This obviously isn't a boatload of delegates, but if Obama has proven anything, it's that he's supremely popular in isolated states with no black folks (Idaho, Kansas). At least this weekend contest turns the news back in his favor briefly. Advantage: OBAMA

Mississippi - March 11th - 33 Delegates - Lots of black voters = Obama landslide. Advantage: OBAMA

Pennsylvania - April 22nd - 158 Delegates - This state isn't much different that Ohio, so Obama should just focus on keeping the margin of defeat as small as possible so not to allow Clinton to erode the lead much. Advantage: CLINTON

Guam - May 3rd - 4 Delegates - I don't even know how to pronounce Guam, let alone where the hell it is, but if it's anything like the Virgin Islands, it's a shoe-in. Advantage: OBAMA

Indiana - May 6th - 72 Delegates - This one's tough. Does Indiana track like Ohio and Tennessee, or more like Missouri and Illinois? Who knows? Advantage: PUSH

North Carolina - May 6th - 115 Delegates - My home state is the last big prize up for grabs, and I predict an all out war for John Edwards' endorsement by this date. Still, this state isn't demographically too far removed from it's neighbors to the North (VA) and South (SC), so it's fair to assume Obama has an edge, although neither candidate has a snowball's chance here come November. Advantage: OBAMA

West Virginia - May 13th - 28 Delegates - I suspect Pennsylvania would be a far gauge of just how badly Obama will leave here. Not a chance. Advantage: CLINTON

Kentucky - May 20th - 51 Delegates - See West Virginia. Advantage: CLINTON

Oregon - May 20th - 32 Delegates - Washington State is a fair gauge here. Advantage: OBAMA

Montana - June 3rd - 16 Delegates - See Wyoming. Advantage: OBAMA

South Dakota - June 3rd - 15 Delegates - See Montana. Advantage: OBAMA

Puerto Rico - June 7th - 55 Delegates - See Guam. This one's also a caucus. Boricuas stand up! Advantage: OBAMA

Let's face it, this one's going right to Denver, and by my estimates, which are clearly quite unscientific, Obama should have the edge, provided he doesn't lose too badly in Pennsylvania.

One thing I know for damn sure, any remote chance that Clinton had of getting my vote in November is completely gone after her last round of fear mongering and race-baiting. The "sleeping babies" ad? Clever. The darkened face? Not so much.

Black folks, let's not catch amnesia should she happen to steal work her way outta this one.

Question: Play armchair campaign manager for a second. What does Obama need to do to get momentum squarely back in his corner?

Was Obama's Face Darkened? [SF Chronicle]

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