Wednesday, November 21, 2007

It Ain't Over Yet - The Iowa Caucus is Coming.

For politicos like me, January 3rd will be a pretty interesting day. The Iowa Caucus(es?) finally rolls around, and we get an idea of just who's going to be gunning for that Number One Spot come November.

Polls all year long have indicated that Hillary Clinton and Rudy Guiliani have the whole thing sewn up, but let's not forget about a dude named Howard Dean who got Chaminaded in Iowa a few years ago, and never recovered. That fateful night provided the springboard for John Kerry to completely screw up what should have been a cakewalk to the White House, dooming us to another 4 years of G-Dubbz.

So, even though I've previously admired, yet counted Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee down and out, reality is, January 3rd, 2008 just might be their December 23rd, 1982.*

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, buoyed by strong support from Christian conservatives, has surged past three of his better-known presidential rivals and is now challenging former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney for the lead in the Iowa Republican caucuses, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

Huckabee has tripled his support in Iowa since late July, eclipsing former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.). Huckabee now runs nearly evenly with Romney, the longtime Iowa front-runner.
Not to be outdone, Barry is mounting his own comeback.
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers has Barack Obama leading the primary field with 30 percent, compared with Clinton at 26 percent and John Edwards at 22 percent. Obama's lead doesn't amount to much given that it's still within the poll's margin of error. But the horse race numbers, along with the results of other questions asked in the poll, has his campaign smiling. It's the first time in weeks that Obama has held such a lead. (See the full results and Post story here.)

Clinton is still seen as the more experienced Democrat, but caucus-goers surveyed in the poll say they are more interested in change: Fifty-five percent said a "new direction and new ideas" was their top priority, compared with 33 percent who said "strength and experience." Obama is also increasingly the second choice of Iowa voters, the Post reports. That's significant because any candidate who doesn't win 15 percent at a caucus is deemed enviable, and his or her supporters must choose another candidate or go home.
As I've stated before, I wouldn't vote for a Republican on a national or statewide ticket if the alternative were to gouge my eyes out with a Bojangles spork, but I'm pretty impressed by Huckabee. In a sea of extremely sketchy characters on the GOP side, he sticks out as the rare candidate with some level of personal integrity. And as for Barack, no, I'm not unretiring the Barry 4 Prez tag just yet, but it's good to know my hefty campaign contribution of $5 $500 is going to good use.

On a somewhat related note, Obama is still trailing Clinton among black voters nationally. I'm certainly not one to suggest that black people vote for someone just because he's black, that would just be downright stupidity. On the other hand, I believe there are an equal number of black people who aren't even considering voting for him just because he's black. Everywhere I go, from church, to the barbershop, and of course the blogosphere and talk radio, I hear people saying they "don't know him well enough" to vote for him. This of course strikes me as complete lunacy.

The man has written two books. His entire life story can be retraced in any number of newspaper and magazine articles. What the hell do people mean they "don't know him"? Do you expect the brother to come to your Thanksgiving dinner and breakdown his plans for domestic and international policy to you?

Seriously black folks, WTH!!???

Take yourself to the library and cop either of his well-written, yet needlessly wordy books. Google the dude. Checkout his campaign website. Give him some money. Whatever you do, don't open a page in the Book of Negro Excuses and not even give the guy a chance.


* Yeah, I'm pretty heavy on the college bball references today, but what can I say? It's that time of year!

Huckabee Gaining Ground in Iowa [WP]

Obama ahead in new Iowa poll [Boston Globe]

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