For politicos like me, January 3rd will be a pretty interesting day. The Iowa Caucus(es?) finally rolls around, and we get an idea of just who's going to be gunning for that Number One Spot come November.
Polls all year long have indicated that Hillary Clinton and Rudy Guiliani have the whole thing sewn up, but let's not forget about a dude named Howard Dean who got Chaminaded in Iowa a few years ago, and never recovered. That fateful night provided the springboard for John Kerry to completely screw up what should have been a cakewalk to the White House, dooming us to another 4 years of G-Dubbz.
So, even though I've previously admired, yet counted Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee down and out, reality is, January 3rd, 2008 just might be their December 23rd, 1982.*
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, buoyed by strong support from Christian conservatives, has surged past three of his better-known presidential rivals and is now challenging former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney for the lead in the Iowa Republican caucuses, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll.Not to be outdone, Barry is mounting his own comeback.
Huckabee has tripled his support in Iowa since late July, eclipsing former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.) and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.). Huckabee now runs nearly evenly with Romney, the longtime Iowa front-runner.
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers has Barack Obama leading the primary field with 30 percent, compared with Clinton at 26 percent and John Edwards at 22 percent. Obama's lead doesn't amount to much given that it's still within the poll's margin of error. But the horse race numbers, along with the results of other questions asked in the poll, has his campaign smiling. It's the first time in weeks that Obama has held such a lead. (See the full results and Post story here.)As I've stated before, I wouldn't vote for a Republican on a national or statewide ticket if the alternative were to gouge my eyes out with a Bojangles spork, but I'm pretty impressed by Huckabee. In a sea of extremely sketchy characters on the GOP side, he sticks out as the rare candidate with some level of personal integrity. And as for Barack, no, I'm not unretiring the Barry 4 Prez tag just yet, but it's good to know my hefty campaign contribution of
Clinton is still seen as the more experienced Democrat, but caucus-goers surveyed in the poll say they are more interested in change: Fifty-five percent said a "new direction and new ideas" was their top priority, compared with 33 percent who said "strength and experience." Obama is also increasingly the second choice of Iowa voters, the Post reports. That's significant because any candidate who doesn't win 15 percent at a caucus is deemed enviable, and his or her supporters must choose another candidate or go home.
On a somewhat related note, Obama is still trailing Clinton among black voters nationally. I'm certainly not one to suggest that black people vote for someone just because he's black, that would just be downright stupidity. On the other hand, I believe there are an equal number of black people who aren't even considering voting for him just because he's black. Everywhere I go, from church, to the barbershop, and of course the blogosphere and talk radio, I hear people saying they "don't know him well enough" to vote for him. This of course strikes me as complete lunacy.
The man has written two books. His entire life story can be retraced in any number of newspaper and magazine articles. What the hell do people mean they "don't know him"? Do you expect the brother to come to your Thanksgiving dinner and breakdown his plans for domestic and international policy to you?
Seriously black folks, WTH!!???
Take yourself to the library and cop either of his well-written, yet needlessly wordy books. Google the dude. Checkout his campaign website. Give him some money. Whatever you do, don't open a page in the Book of Negro Excuses and not even give the guy a chance.
Sheez.
* Yeah, I'm pretty heavy on the college bball references today, but what can I say? It's that time of year!
Huckabee Gaining Ground in Iowa [WP]
Obama ahead in new Iowa poll [Boston Globe]
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I'll be very interested to see how closely the polls match the outcome, especially in Obama's case. Polls don't often do too well in tracking Black candidates, especially when they are running against White candidates.
Sometimes it's a matter of one candidate bringing out a disproportional number of first-time voters who aren't on the phone lists of "likely voters" used by pollsters.
Another theory is that White voters are reluctant to tell a stranger that they are voting along racial lines, lest they appear racist, regardless of their reason for doing so.
I'm also wondering whether Obama's Black support might be understated by poll respondents who don't want it to look like they are "rubber-stamping a Bro," regardless of their reason for voting that way.
One more thing to remember about Iowa is that with a caucus, there is no secret ballot. I'm wondering if Obama will hurt here by soft supporters/local and state party officials who are afraid to publicly oppose the Clinton Machine.
Ok, so you're a Republican. That explains a lot.
AvgBro,
i'm with you on this one... i was THISclose to writing on this news item earlier today, but punked out to do a fluff piece since we're on Thanksgiving Eve! *smile* i'm a Obama supporter as well, even though i cannot match your campaign contribution! *smile*
i get a feeling that Iowa Caucus notwithstanding, the brother has a LONG ROW TO HOE and without a groundswell of support in the Black community, i think his campaign will falter in the weeks following Iowa. if he wins in Iowa, i think the Clinton campaign will take off the gloves and come after him with BOTH BARRELS!
I've been thinking more about this, during a long drive to the inlaws, and soon enough if hasn't happened already, Obama will find himself being judged by a different rulebook that everybody else.
He certainly needs a groundswell of support, as noted by both AB and
plez. But if that groundswell were to come from the Black community, it could backfire by annointing him The Black Candidate.
Yes, some will argue that he has been and can never be anything but The Black Candidate, although in this case I'm referring specifically to the issues that Obama embraces and is perceived to champion.
While both Revs. Al and Jesse had talking points that went beyond race, they both rose to prominence as activists and were never taken seriously as mainstream candidates. Much of this had to do with their inability to attract any groudswells beyond their Black base. (Jesse had some brief union support, and I think may have even won a crowded South Carolina race,though I'm working entirely from falible memory here. But he never came close to the "viable" status that Obama has enjoyed for quite some time.)
Homeboy attended an Ivy League - of course his books are going to be wordy..............
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